Updated July 14, 2026

The 2028 swing states

Most of the country is not really up for grabs. The 2028 election will be decided in a handful of closely divided states. Here are the seven core battlegrounds - worth 93 electoral votes - plus the next tier that could come into play depending on who the nominees are.

Election DayTue, Nov 7, 2028

InaugurationJan 20, 2029

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Updated July 14, 2026. Battlegrounds based on 2024 margins and recent flips — not a forecast of 2028 winners. Methodology · Privacy

The core seven

2028 battleground states

Pennsylvania

19 electoral votes

2024: Trump +1.7. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

Georgia

16 electoral votes

2024: Trump +2.2. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

North Carolina

16 electoral votes

2024: Trump +3.2. Voted Trump in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

Michigan

15 electoral votes

2024: Trump +1.4. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

Arizona

11 electoral votes

2024: Trump +5.5. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes

2024: Trump +0.9. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

Nevada

6 electoral votes

2024: Trump +3.1. Voted Biden in 2020, Trump in 2024.

Tossup

The next tier

States that could tip in 2028

Not core battlegrounds today, but close enough that the right nominee or a national shift could put them in play.

Is Hawaii a swing state?

No. Hawaii is classified as Safe Democratic with 4 electoral votes. It is not among the seven 2028 battlegrounds and is not treated as competitive in modern presidential planning. Full answer: Is Hawaii a swing state? · 538 electoral map · Path to 270

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Quick answers

2028 swing states FAQ

What are the swing states for 2028?

The seven core 2028 battlegrounds are Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada. They were the closest states in 2024 and together hold 93 electoral votes.

Which swing state has the most electoral votes?

Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is the largest of the core 2028 battlegrounds - which is why it is often called the tipping-point state.

Why are these the swing states?

These states were decided by only a point or a few points in 2024 and have flipped between the parties in recent cycles, so both campaigns realistically can win them.

Is Hawaii a swing state?

No. Hawaii is Safe Democratic with 4 electoral votes. It has backed Democrats in every presidential election since 1960 except the national landslides of 1972 and 1984. It is not a 2028 battleground.

Could other states become battlegrounds in 2028?

Yes. Depending on the nominees, states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Virginia, Florida, Iowa or Ohio could tighten or loosen. The map is never fixed.

Next: how each party gets to 270 · electoral map · Is Hawaii a swing state?