Who's Running 2028
Updated July 14, 2026

Will they run for president in 2028?

Detailed, sourced analysis for every major 2028 contender -- Democratic and Republican. Each page examines the public signals, statements, and early-state activity pointing toward (or away from) a candidacy, and gives a sourced verdict.

Note on verdicts

Likely vs. possible vs. conditional

Likely -- public evidence (early-state visits, fundraising, organizing, or an unambiguous statement) points strongly toward a run. Possible -- the contender has left the door open but has not yet taken concrete steps. Conditional -- a run depends on an external outcome, such as winning a governor's race. No one below has formally declared. Verdicts reflect public reporting and prediction-market data at the last-updated date.

Democrats

Democratic contenders: will they run?

Gavin Newsom
Governor of California

Verdict: Likely

Pete Buttigieg
Former U.S. Transportation Secretary

Verdict: Likely

Josh Shapiro
Governor of Pennsylvania

Verdict: Likely

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
U.S. Representative (NY-14)

Verdict: Likely

Gretchen Whitmer
Governor of Michigan

Verdict: Possible

Kamala Harris
Former Vice President

Verdict: Possible

Republicans

Republican contenders: will they run?

JD Vance
Vice President of the United States

Verdict: Likely

Marco Rubio
U.S. Secretary of State

Verdict: Likely

Ron DeSantis
Former Governor of Florida

Verdict: Likely

Vivek Ramaswamy
Ohio GOP Governor Nominee

Verdict: Conditional

Special case: Donald Trump

President Trump is constitutionally ineligible for a third presidential term. The 22nd Amendment bars anyone elected president twice from being elected again. Trump was elected in 2016 and 2024.

Full analysis: Will Trump run in 2028? -->

How we determine verdicts

  • Every signal cited -- a quote, a confirmed early-state visit, a fundraising filing -- is sourced to a named outlet and dated.
  • No signal is published without independent double-verification against a second source.
  • Prediction-market odds from named exchanges are noted where relevant as a market-consensus indicator, but they are speculative and not forecasts.
  • Verdicts are revised whenever new public evidence materially changes the picture. Check the individual pages for the most recent signal.
Quick answers

Will they run? -- FAQ

Who is most likely to run for president in 2028?
On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom (Governor of California), Pete Buttigieg (former Transportation Secretary), Josh Shapiro (Governor of Pennsylvania), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (U.S. Representative) have each taken steps consistent with a 2028 run -- from national fundraising and organizing tours to public signals. On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance leads all early polls and has already visited early-primary states, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio was named by President Trump alongside Vance as a future standard-bearer.
When will candidates officially announce for 2028?
Most serious candidates are unlikely to make formal announcements before the November 2026 midterms. Filing deadlines for most primary states run from late 2027 through early 2028, so a formal declaration is not strictly necessary until late 2027. In practice, the informal campaign -- fundraising, early-state visits, endorsements -- is already underway for several contenders.
Can Donald Trump run for president in 2028?
No. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution bars anyone who has been elected president twice from being elected again. Trump was elected in 2016 and again in 2024, so he is constitutionally ineligible for a third term in 2028. See the full analysis at /can-trump-run-2028.
What does 'likely to run' mean on this tracker?
A verdict of 'likely' means public evidence -- confirmed early-state visits, fundraising infrastructure, national organizing, or an unambiguous statement of interest -- points strongly toward a candidacy. It does not mean the person has formally declared. 'Possible' means the contender has left the door open but has not yet taken concrete steps toward a run. 'Conditional' means a candidacy depends on an external outcome (like winning a gubernatorial race).
How often is this page updated?
Each individual candidate page is updated when a new dated, verified signal -- a quote, a filing, a confirmed early-state visit -- is published. The hub page (this page) is updated to reflect changes in verdicts across the full set of contenders.

See also: Full 2028 candidate list · Prediction-market odds · 2028 primary polls · Democratic contenders · Republican contenders

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