The 2028 path to 270
Winning the presidency means winning 270 electoral votes. Because most states are safe for one party, the math comes down to the battlegrounds. Here is what each side needs in 2028 - using one reasonable baseline of the map.
Updated July 14, 2026. Baseline leans use recent results; 2028 nominees can redraw the map. Methodology · Privacy
Democratic path
A Democratic nominee who holds every Democratic-leaning state starts near 226 electoral votes and needs about 44 more from the 93 battleground votes.
- The "blue wall" - Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) - is worth 44 EV and is the most direct route.
- Adding any one Sun Belt battleground (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona or Nevada) widens the cushion.
- Every Democratic-leaning state must hold first; a slip in a Lean D state changes the math.
Republican path
A Republican nominee who holds every Republican-leaning state starts near 219 electoral votes and needs about 51 more from the battlegrounds.
- Republicans swept all seven battlegrounds in 2024, so the 2024 map is the starting reference.
- Holding the Sun Belt (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada) plus one northern battleground is a common route.
- Losing Pennsylvania forces a near-sweep of the rest, which is why it is the prize.
The battleground electoral votes
These 7 states hold the 93 votes that decide it. Tap any for detail.
Note: the base totals depend on how you rate the lean states, so analysts differ by a few votes. The 2028 nominees are not set, so these are structural paths, not predictions.
How flipping Arizona and Georgia changes the path to 270
The two most-asked Sun Belt flips, with the actual electoral math.
If a Democrat flips both
Arizona (11) + Georgia (16) = 27 electoral votes. Added to the 226 Democratic-leaning votes, that reaches 253 - still 17 short of 270. A Democrat would still need at least one more battleground, such as Pennsylvania (19) or Michigan (15).
If a Republican loses both
Starting from a 2024-style sweep of all seven battlegrounds (312), losing Arizona and Georgia drops the GOP to 285 - still 15 above 270. Republicans could lose both and still win.
Bottom line: Arizona and Georgia are real prizes, but neither side crosses 270 on them alone - the northern blue-wall states still decide the majority.