The 2028 Tracker Index
One number for where every 2028 contender actually stands. The Index scores each candidate from 0 to 100 every day by combining real-money prediction markets, public attention, and betting volume into a single Standing - data you will not find anywhere else, because we compute it.
How the Index is built
Standing (0-100) is a weighted composite of three live signals: real-money prediction-market win probability (Polymarket, 60%), Wikipedia public attention measured as 7-day average daily pageviews (25%), and prediction-market trading volume over the trailing week (15%). Market probability is normalized linearly to the strongest candidate; attention and volume are heavy-tailed, so they receive a square-root compression before normalization to keep a high-buzz long-shot from outranking a genuine contender. Weights are renormalized per candidate over whichever signals are available. Momentum is the change in Standing versus seven days earlier. Recomputed every day; each daily snapshot is preserved.
Coverage: 39 of 44 contenders are currently priced by the prediction market; the rest are scored on public attention until markets list them. Standing is an index of live signals, not a poll of voters.
Full methodology, glossary, sources, and a worked example
Formula
For each candidate, Standing = 100 x (0.60 x market + 0.25 x attention + 0.15 x volume), where each signal is normalized to the strongest candidate and the weights are renormalized over whichever signals are present. Market is the Polymarket general-election win probability. Attention is the Wikipedia 7-day average daily pageviews (square-root compressed). Volume is the Polymarket trailing-week trading volume (square-root compressed).
Worked example
Suppose the field leader has a 20% win probability and a candidate has 10%: the candidate's market component is 10/20 = 0.50. If that candidate also sits at 70% of the leader's pageviews, the square-root-compressed attention component is about 0.84. With volume at, say, 0.40, the Standing is 100 x (0.60 x 0.50 + 0.25 x 0.84 + 0.15 x 0.40), which is about 57.
Glossary
- Standing - the 0-100 composite score; higher means a stronger overall position.
- Momentum - the change in Standing versus seven days earlier.
- Win probability - the market's implied chance the candidate wins the general election.
- Nomination probability - the market's implied chance of winning the party nomination.
How to read it
- Scan the leaderboard top-down for the overall field order.
- Watch the 7-day column for who is rising or fading this week.
- Use the by-party tables for the nomination races.
Sources
Polymarket (Gamma API), Wikimedia Pageviews API, Google News.
Version
Methodology v1.0. Any change to the signals or weights will be logged here with a date.
The 2028 Tracker Index
Every tracked contender, ranked by Standing (0-100). The 7-day column is Momentum - how much a candidate has risen or fallen over the past week.
As of June 29, 2026, JD Vance leads the 2028 field with a Standing of 90. Weekly Momentum begins once the Index has a full week of history.
| # | Candidate | Standing | 7-day | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.4% to win | 17,405 views/day | $143k bet volume | 90 | new | building |
| 2 | 14.0% to win | 21.9% nom | 8,340 views/day | $410k bet volume | 70 | new | building |
| 3 | 12.3% to win | 20.5% nom | 4,440 views/day | $251k bet volume | 58 | new | building |
| 4 | 5.8% to win | 9.0% nom | 8,779 views/day | $131k bet volume | 41 | new | building |
| 5 | 5.3% to win | 9.3% nom | 8,060 views/day | $115k bet volume | 38 | new | building |
| 6 | 0.9% to win | 1.1% nom | 10,701 views/day | $571k bet volume | 33 | new | building |
| 7 | 4.3% to win | 6.5% nom | 4,158 views/day | $238k bet volume | 33 | new | building |
| 8 | 2.3% to win | 4.2% nom | 7,701 views/day | $128k bet volume | 29 | new | building |
| 9 | 0.9% to win | 1.5% nom | 2,715 views/day | $1.1M bet volume | 28 | new | building |
| 10 | 1.1% to win | 1.8% nom | 7,314 views/day | $172k bet volume | 25 | new | building |
| 11 | 0.7% to win | 0.8% nom | 7,587 views/day | $197k bet volume | 25 | new | building |
| 12 | 2.8% to win | 5.5% nom | 1,447 views/day | $147k bet volume | 21 | new | building |
| 13 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 4,594 views/day | $195k bet volume | 19 | new | building |
| 14 | 1.1% to win | 2.4% nom | 3,699 views/day | $89k bet volume | 19 | new | building |
| 15 | 1.4% to win | 1.9% nom | 1,884 views/day | $83k bet volume | 17 | new | building |
| 16 | 0.7% to win | 1.3% nom | 2,214 views/day | $154k bet volume | 17 | new | building |
| 17 | 0.7% to win | 0.7% nom | 1,182 views/day | $299k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 18 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 2,412 views/day | $227k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 19 | 0.9% to win | 1.1% nom | 1,350 views/day | $194k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 20 | 0.7% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,243 views/day | $255k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 21 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,855 views/day | $295k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 22 | 0.0% to win | 0.7% nom | 3,147 views/day | $97k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 23 | 1.1% to win | 2.3% nom | 1,960 views/day | $49k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 24 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 2,007 views/day | $194k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 25 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,722 views/day | $183k bet volume | 14 | new | building |
| 26 | 0.7% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,153 views/day | $140k bet volume | 14 | new | building |
| 27 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,450 views/day | $168k bet volume | 13 | new | building |
| 28 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 2,166 views/day | $82k bet volume | 13 | new | building |
| 29 | 0.8% to win | 1.1% nom | 454 views/day | $161k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 30 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,662 views/day | $84k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 31 | 0.0% to win | 1.3% nom | 1,642 views/day | $73k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 32 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 860 views/day | $168k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 33 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,403 views/day | $82k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 34 | 0.0% to win | 1.6% nom | 2,015 views/day | $28k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 35 | 0.0% to win | 1.7% nom | 1,722 views/day | $28k bet volume | 10 | new | building |
| 36 | 0.0% to win | 2,712 views/day | 10 | new | building |
| 37 | 0.0% to win | 0.7% nom | 290 views/day | $200k bet volume | 10 | new | building |
| 38 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,440 views/day | $16k bet volume | 9 | new | building |
| 39 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 783 views/day | $67k bet volume | 9 | new | building |
| 40 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 467 views/day | $56k bet volume | 8 | new | building |
| 41 | 0.0% to win | 828 views/day | 6 | new | building |
| 42 | 0.0% to win | 837 views/day | 6 | new | building |
| 43 | 0.0% to win | 719 views/day | 5 | new | building |
| 44 | 0.0% to win | 704 views/day | 5 | new | building |
By party
The same Standing, ranked within each party.
Democratic field (23)
| # | Candidate | Standing | 7-day | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.3% to win | 20.5% nom | 4,440 views/day | $251k bet volume | 58 | new | building |
| 2 | 5.8% to win | 9.0% nom | 8,779 views/day | $131k bet volume | 41 | new | building |
| 3 | 5.3% to win | 9.3% nom | 8,060 views/day | $115k bet volume | 38 | new | building |
| 4 | 4.3% to win | 6.5% nom | 4,158 views/day | $238k bet volume | 33 | new | building |
| 5 | 2.3% to win | 4.2% nom | 7,701 views/day | $128k bet volume | 29 | new | building |
| 6 | 0.9% to win | 1.5% nom | 2,715 views/day | $1.1M bet volume | 28 | new | building |
| 7 | 1.1% to win | 1.8% nom | 7,314 views/day | $172k bet volume | 25 | new | building |
| 8 | 2.8% to win | 5.5% nom | 1,447 views/day | $147k bet volume | 21 | new | building |
| 9 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 4,594 views/day | $195k bet volume | 19 | new | building |
| 10 | 0.7% to win | 0.7% nom | 1,182 views/day | $299k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 11 | 0.7% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,243 views/day | $255k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 12 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,855 views/day | $295k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 13 | 1.1% to win | 2.3% nom | 1,960 views/day | $49k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 14 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 2,007 views/day | $194k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 15 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,722 views/day | $183k bet volume | 14 | new | building |
| 16 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,450 views/day | $168k bet volume | 13 | new | building |
| 17 | 0.0% to win | 1.3% nom | 1,642 views/day | $73k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 18 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 860 views/day | $168k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 19 | 0.0% to win | 1.6% nom | 2,015 views/day | $28k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 20 | 0.0% to win | 1.7% nom | 1,722 views/day | $28k bet volume | 10 | new | building |
| 21 | 0.0% to win | 2,712 views/day | 10 | new | building |
| 22 | 0.0% to win | 0.7% nom | 290 views/day | $200k bet volume | 10 | new | building |
| 23 | 0.0% to win | 828 views/day | 6 | new | building |
Republican field (21)
| # | Candidate | Standing | 7-day | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.4% to win | 17,405 views/day | $143k bet volume | 90 | new | building |
| 2 | 14.0% to win | 21.9% nom | 8,340 views/day | $410k bet volume | 70 | new | building |
| 3 | 0.9% to win | 1.1% nom | 10,701 views/day | $571k bet volume | 33 | new | building |
| 4 | 0.7% to win | 0.8% nom | 7,587 views/day | $197k bet volume | 25 | new | building |
| 5 | 1.1% to win | 2.4% nom | 3,699 views/day | $89k bet volume | 19 | new | building |
| 6 | 1.4% to win | 1.9% nom | 1,884 views/day | $83k bet volume | 17 | new | building |
| 7 | 0.7% to win | 1.3% nom | 2,214 views/day | $154k bet volume | 17 | new | building |
| 8 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 2,412 views/day | $227k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 9 | 0.9% to win | 1.1% nom | 1,350 views/day | $194k bet volume | 16 | new | building |
| 10 | 0.0% to win | 0.7% nom | 3,147 views/day | $97k bet volume | 15 | new | building |
| 11 | 0.7% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,153 views/day | $140k bet volume | 14 | new | building |
| 12 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 2,166 views/day | $82k bet volume | 13 | new | building |
| 13 | 0.8% to win | 1.1% nom | 454 views/day | $161k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 14 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,662 views/day | $84k bet volume | 12 | new | building |
| 15 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 1,403 views/day | $82k bet volume | 11 | new | building |
| 16 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 1,440 views/day | $16k bet volume | 9 | new | building |
| 17 | 0.0% to win | 0.8% nom | 783 views/day | $67k bet volume | 9 | new | building |
| 18 | 0.0% to win | 0.9% nom | 467 views/day | $56k bet volume | 8 | new | building |
| 19 | 0.0% to win | 837 views/day | 6 | new | building |
| 20 | 0.0% to win | 719 views/day | 5 | new | building |
| 21 | 0.0% to win | 704 views/day | 5 | new | building |
Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to cite or explain the Index.
What is the 2028 Tracker Index?
The 2028 Tracker Index is a daily 0-100 score (the "Standing") for every 2028 U.S. presidential contender, published by 2028tracker.com. It combines real-money prediction markets, public attention, and betting volume into one number so you can see at a glance where each candidate stands.
How is the Standing calculated?
Standing is a weighted composite: 60% prediction-market win probability (Polymarket), 25% Wikipedia public attention (7-day average pageviews), and 15% prediction-market trading volume. Attention and volume are square-root compressed, and each signal is normalized to the strongest candidate. Weights are renormalized per candidate over whatever signals are available.
How often is it updated?
Every day. A scheduled job recomputes every candidate's Standing and Momentum and republishes the data, the page, the API, and the snapshot image.
What is Momentum?
Momentum is the change in a candidate's Standing versus seven days earlier (the 7-day column on the leaderboard). It shows who is rising and who is fading.
Is this a poll?
No. It is not a survey of voters. It is a composite index of live market and attention signals, designed to summarize where the field stands and how it is moving.
Can I use this data?
Yes. The data is free under CC BY 4.0 - use it with attribution and a link to 2028tracker.com/the-index. Pull it as JSON or CSV from the open API, or embed the live leaderboard on your own site.
Who is leading the 2028 Tracker Index?
As of June 29, 2026, JD Vance leads with a Standing of 90 out of 100.
Use this data
The 2028 Tracker Index is open data. Pull the live numbers as JSON or CSV, or embed the live leaderboard on your own site. Free to use with attribution and a link back to 2028tracker.com.
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License: CC BY 4.0. Cite as: The 2028 Tracker Index, 2028tracker.com/the-index.
Snapshot and share kit
When you post or advertise the Index, show the truths two ways: the live snapshot image (eye-catching for social and ads) and the same numbers in text (so people, search engines, and AI can read and cite them - data locked inside an image is invisible to crawlers). Both update automatically every day.
The 2028 Tracker Index - June 29, 2026 Daily Standing (0-100) of the 2028 presidential field. 1. JD Vance (GOP) - Standing 90 2. Marco Rubio (GOP) - Standing 70 3. Gavin Newsom (DEM) - Standing 58 4. Jon Ossoff (DEM) - Standing 41 5. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DEM) - Standing 38 6. Tulsi Gabbard (GOP) - Standing 33 7. Kamala Harris (DEM) - Standing 33 8. Pete Buttigieg (DEM) - Standing 29 9. Wes Moore (DEM) - Standing 28 10. Ro Khanna (DEM) - Standing 25 Full live board + data: 2028tracker.com/the-index Source: The 2028 Tracker Index (CC BY 4.0).
Who is actually winning the 2028 race? The 2028 Tracker Index scores every contender 0-100 every day - from prediction markets, public attention, and betting volume. Today: JD Vance leads at 90. See the live board: 2028tracker.com/the-index
Snapshot image (always current): https://2028tracker.com/api/index/card. Always pair the image with the text above so the data stays readable and citeable.
Sources: Polymarket (Gamma API), Wikimedia Pageviews API, Google News.
The 2028 Tracker Index is computed and published by 2028tracker.com. Standing and Momentum are original metrics; the underlying signals are drawn from public sources listed above. Last updated .
More 2028 context: The 2028 Daily (today's developments), Deep Reads (the 2028 canon), and the full candidate tracker. The Index is informational only - not betting or investment advice. Next update: daily at about 10:30 UTC.