Updated July 7, 2026

2028 election polls

What does early 2028 polling show? Here is where the named contenders stand in the surveys published so far, by race. This early, polls mostly track name recognition, so read them for trend, not as a forecast.

Election DayTue, Nov 7, 2028
InaugurationJan 20, 2029
Votes to win270 of 538

Updated July 7, 2026. Early primary polls mostly measure name recognition, not a forecast. Methodology · Privacy

What do the latest 2028 polls show?

In the most recent national primary polling, Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field at 26%, while JD Vance leads the Republican field at 42%. The numbers below are early reads that mostly track name recognition this far from the 2028 election.

Democratic primary

Latest 2028 Democratic primary polls

2028 Democratic presidential primary polls, by pollster and date
PollDatesHarrisNewsomButtigiegOcasio-CortezShapiroKellyBeshear
McLaughlin & Associates464 LVJune 17-23, 202626%16%8%9%5%3%
Echelon Insights515 LVJune 11-14, 202620%14%14%12%6%4%2%
Noble Predictive Insights1,013 RVJune 1-4, 202627%14%11%8%2%
Focaldata685 RVMay 29 - June 1, 202637%17%8%7%3%5%3%
Harvard-Harris1,725 RVMay 29-31, 202644%26%8%10%
I&I/TIPP593 RVMay 26-28, 202631%14%6%5%6%4%2%
Big Data Poll1,378 LVMay 24-27, 202628%17%11%9%6%6%3%
Emerson College432 LVMay 24-25, 20269.9%15.9%17.9%11.1%10%8.5%
Overton Insights661 LVMay 16-20, 20269%13%16%12%8%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports433 LVMay 18-20, 202634%12%10%11%9%9%4%
Echelon Insights501 LVMay 14-18, 202623%17%10%11%5%6%2%

Field dates shown; the leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster.

Republican primary

Latest 2028 Republican primary polls

2028 Republican presidential primary polls, by pollster and date
PollDatesVanceRubioTrump Jr.DeSantisKennedy Jr.CruzHaley
Quantus Insights480 LVJuly 3-7, 202642%26%9%4%3%
Focaldata727 LVJune 26-30, 202640%18%9%7%5%2%
Big Data Poll1,166 LVJune 26-28, 202637%18%8%7%5%4%
McLaughlin & Associates440 RVJune 17-23, 202635%15%14%5%3%3%
Echelon Insights418 LVJune 11-14, 202642%15%7%6%3%2%
Focaldata667 AMay 29 - June 1, 202637%18%10%9%5%3%
Harvard-Harris1,725 RVMay 29-31, 202645%21%21%
I&I/TIPP561 RVMay 26-28, 202629%12%19%6%4%3%2%
Big Data Poll1,148 LVMay 24-27, 202637.4%16.1%7.2%5.9%3.3%3.8%
Emerson College432 LVMay 24-25, 202635.5%34.6%5.4%3.1%0.7%4.6%
Overton Insights509May 16-20, 202639%32%9%4%
Daily Mail/JL Partners496 LVMay 15-19, 202647%18%9%4%3%
Echelon Insights418 LVMay 14-18, 202636%12%6%12%2%2%

Field dates shown; the leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster.

Polls this far out largely reflect name recognition, not vote intention - read them for trend. For deeper polling aggregation see FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolling.

What the surveys show

Contenders with published 2028 polling

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Democratic

Polls in the low double digits and shows a high ceiling among progressives.

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

Leads Democratic 2028 prediction markets (around a 30 percent chance of the nomination) and runs at or near the top of recent national Democratic primary polls.

JD Vance
Republican

The clear early Republican frontrunner, at or near the top of every 2028 GOP primary poll in mid-2026.

Josh Shapiro
Democratic

Polls in high single digits; consistently ranked top-tier by analysts.

Kamala Harris
Democratic

Has led most recent national 2028 Democratic primary polls (from the high 20s to the mid 40s since spring 2026), though only mid-single digits in betting markets.

Marco Rubio
Republican

Consistently second to JD Vance in 2028 Republican primary polls and the main alternative to him; one May 2026 Emerson survey showed them within a point, but most polls give Vance a double-digit lead.

Pete Buttigieg
Democratic

Led a couple of May 2026 national Democratic primary surveys (Emerson, Overton) but trails Kamala Harris in most recent polls; low in betting markets.

Ron DeSantis
Republican

Third in early 2028 Republican primary polling at roughly 11 to 12 percent in mid-2026, now trailing both JD Vance and a surging Donald Trump Jr. in several surveys.

Phil Murphy
Democratic

Barely registers in early 2028 Democratic primary polls (about 1 percent or less) and is not a meaningful factor in prediction markets.

Rahm Emanuel
Democratic

Registers only in the low single digits in early 2028 Democratic primary surveys.

Sources: Emerson College polling, FEC - 2028 presidential filings.

Quick answers

2028 polls FAQ

Who is leading the 2028 polls?
Across recent national surveys, Kamala Harris has led most 2028 Democratic primary polls, with Gavin Newsom consistently second, while JD Vance leads every recent Republican poll, usually by double digits. The field is unsettled and numbers this early mostly reflect name recognition - the dated table above shows the latest read from each pollster.
Are there reliable 2028 polls yet?
Only early ones. More than two years out, primary polls largely measure familiarity. They are worth watching for trend, not treating as predictions.
What do the 2028 Democratic primary polls show?
Most national 2028 Democratic primary polls since spring 2026 have put Kamala Harris first - usually in the high 20s to mid 40s - with Gavin Newsom consistently second. A few surveys differ: Emerson College's May 2026 poll had Pete Buttigieg first at 17.9%, Newsom at 15.9%, and Harris at 9.9%. The table above shows each pollster's numbers; the field is undecided-heavy this far out.
What do the 2028 Republican primary polls show?
JD Vance leads every recent 2028 Republican primary poll, with support ranging from about 29% to 47%. Marco Rubio is consistently second. Emerson College's late-May 2026 survey was the only one to show them within a point (Vance 35.5%, Rubio 34.6%); most polls give Vance a double-digit lead, with Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and others in single digits.
Where can I find the latest 2028 polls?
Pollsters such as Emerson College publish early 2028 surveys, and aggregators track them. We link the source pollster on every row of the table above.

Compare with prediction-market odds · what they said · matchups.

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