Updated September 15, 2026

2028 election polls

What does early 2028 polling show? Here is where the named contenders stand in the surveys published so far, by race. This early, polls mostly track name recognition, so read them for trend, not as a forecast.

Updated September 15, 2026. Early primary polls mostly measure name recognition, not a forecast. Methodology | Privacy

What do the latest 2028 polls show?

In the most recent national primary polling, Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field at 27%, while JD Vance leads the Republican field at 38%. The numbers below are early reads that mostly track name recognition this far from the 2028 election.

Democratic primary

Latest 2028 Democratic primary polls

2028 Democratic presidential primary polls, by pollster and date
PollDatesHarrisNewsomButtigiegOssoffOcasio-CortezShapiroKelly
Big Data Poll1,329 LVSeptember 13-15, 202627%16%10%6%10%5%5%
Veteran Action/The Honest Poll626 LVSeptember 7-13, 202632%21%13%6%9%5%-
Liberal Currents/Center for Strategic Politics683 VSeptember 3, 8-10, 202625%15%13%10%8%6%9%
Focaldata614 LVAugust 28 - September 2, 202629%14%9%7%11%8%6%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov566 LVAugust 25 - September 1, 202617%14%16%7%14%3%6%
Morning ConsultAugust 28-30, 202624%12%9%7%---
Harvard-Harris2,100 RVAugust 28-30, 202642%18%9%7%9%7%-
Quantus Insights551 LVAugust 26-28, 20268.1%7.1%25.7%21.3%15.3%--
McLaughlin & Associates474 LVAugust 18-24, 202629%16%10%-9%6%7%
Echelon Insights483 LVAugust 13-17, 202618%12%13%5%11%6%7%
Noble Predictive Insights930 RVAugust 12-16, 202628%14%12%-7%5%3%
Focaldata616 LVAugust 7-11, 202626%15%13%7%9%8%6%
Rasmussen Reports1,222 LVAugust 2-4, 202637%14%10%-9%6%9%
Big Data Poll1,338 LVJuly 24-27, 202629.7%14.3%7.4%6.2%8.6%6.5%5%
McLaughlin & Associates472 LVJuly 15-21, 202628%18%8%-10%5%3%
Emerson College574 LVJuly 19-20, 20268%17%19%13%13%5%-
JL Partners517 RVJuly 20, 202631%15%9%4%7%5%4%
Echelon Insights496 LVJuly 9-13, 202621%14%13%-9%7%4%
Harvard-Harris1,776 RVJuly 11-12, 202637%24%10%-9%9%-
Quantus Insights1,140 LVJuly 3-7, 202635.3%17.7%12.9%-11.1%7.1%-
Manhattan Institute1,121 LVJuly 1-6, 202619%15%13%3%12%4%6%
Zogby391 LVJuly 1-4, 202638%19%9%-12%7%6%
Focaldata755 LVJune 26-30, 202633%15%8%2%9%7%5%
Daily Mail/JL Partners1,040 RVJune 24-26, 202629%15%11%2%6%3%5%
McLaughlin & Associates464 LVJune 17-23, 202626%16%8%-9%5%3%
Echelon Insights515 LVJune 11-14, 202620%14%14%-12%6%4%
Noble Predictive Insights1,013 RVJune 1-4, 202627%14%11%-8%--
Focaldata685 RVMay 29 - June 1, 202637%17%8%-7%3%5%
Harvard-Harris1,725 RVMay 29-31, 202644%26%--8%10%-
I&I/TIPP593 RVMay 26-28, 202631%14%6%-5%6%4%
Big Data Poll1,378 LVMay 24-27, 202628%17%11%-9%6%6%
Emerson College432 LVMay 24-25, 20269.9%15.9%17.9%-11.1%10%-
Overton Insights661 LVMay 16-20, 20269%13%16%-12%8%4%
Rasmussen Reports433 LVMay 18-20, 202634%12%10%-11%9%9%
Echelon Insights501 LVMay 14-18, 202623%17%10%-11%5%6%

Field dates shown; the leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster.

Republican primary

Latest 2028 Republican primary polls

2028 Republican presidential primary polls, by pollster and date
PollDatesVanceRubioTrump Jr.DeSantisKennedy Jr.HaleyCruz
Big Data Poll1,110 LVSeptember 13-15, 202638%16%-8%6%6%4%
Focaldata662 LVAugust 28 - September 2, 202643%21%7%9%4%-4%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov499 LVAugust 25 - September 1, 202644%21%8%7%2%1%3%
Quantus Insights473 LVAugust 26-28, 202641%29%9%6%---
McLaughlin & Associates433 LVAugust 18-24, 202632%12%19%6%-5%2%
Focaldata874 AAugust 7-11, 202642%18%10%8%6%-3%
Emerson CollegeJuly 19-20, 202639%38%5%5%---
Echelon Insights1,004 LVJuly 9-13, 202638%15%8%9%3%-2%
Harvard-Harris1,776 RVJuly 11-12, 202642%22%18%-6%6%-
Quantus Insights480 LVJuly 3-7, 202642%26%-9%-3%4%
Zogby375 LVJuly 1-4, 202651%13%-13%--5%
Focaldata727 LVJune 26-30, 202640%18%9%7%5%-2%
Big Data Poll1,166 LVJune 26-28, 202637%18%-8%7%4%5%
Daily Mail/JL Partners517 LVJune 24-26, 202651%15%-9%-2%6%
McLaughlin & Associates440 RVJune 17-23, 202635%15%14%5%-3%3%
Echelon Insights418 LVJune 11-14, 202642%15%7%6%3%-2%
Focaldata667 AMay 29 - June 1, 202637%18%10%9%5%-3%
Harvard-Harris1,725 RVMay 29-31, 202645%21%21%----
I&I/TIPP561 RVMay 26-28, 202629%12%19%6%4%2%3%
Big Data Poll1,148 LVMay 24-27, 202637.4%16.1%-7.2%5.9%3.8%3.3%
Emerson College432 LVMay 24-25, 202635.5%34.6%-5.4%3.1%4.6%0.7%
Overton Insights509May 16-20, 202639%32%-9%-4%-
Daily Mail/JL Partners496 LVMay 15-19, 202647%18%-9%-3%4%
Echelon Insights418 LVMay 14-18, 202636%12%6%12%2%-2%

Field dates shown; the leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster.

Polls this far out largely reflect name recognition, not vote intention - read them for trend. For deeper polling aggregation see FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolling.

What the surveys show

Contenders with published 2028 polling

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Democratic

Polls in the low double digits and shows a high ceiling among progressives.

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

Third in the Polymarket 2028 Democratic nomination market (about 13 percent on Sept 23, 2026, behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff) and second to Kamala Harris in most recent national Democratic primary polls.

JD Vance
Republican

The clear early Republican frontrunner, at or near the top of every 2028 GOP primary poll in mid-2026.

Josh Shapiro
Democratic

Polls in high single digits; consistently ranked top-tier by analysts.

Kamala Harris
Democratic

Has led most national 2028 Democratic primary polls since spring 2026, though two summer polls (Emerson, July 19-20; Quantus Insights, August 26-28) put Pete Buttigieg first; only mid-single digits in betting markets.

Pete Buttigieg
Democratic

Led a couple of May 2026 national Democratic primary surveys (Emerson, Overton) and two summer polls (Emerson, July 19-20; Quantus Insights, August 26-28), but trails Kamala Harris in most recent polls; low in betting markets.

Ron DeSantis
Republican

Between 6% and 9% in the six national Republican primary polls from August to mid-September 2026, behind JD Vance and Marco Rubio in all six and behind Donald Trump Jr. in four.

Phil Murphy
Democratic

Barely registers in early 2028 Democratic primary polls (about 1 percent or less) and is not a meaningful factor in prediction markets.

Rahm Emanuel
Democratic

Registers only in the low single digits in early 2028 Democratic primary surveys.

Marco Rubio
Republican

Placed second to JD Vance in most 2028 Republican primary polls through September 2026 (16 percent in Big Data Poll, September 13-15) and is second in the Polymarket Republican nomination market, though he now says he has no plans to run.

Sources: Emerson College polling, FEC - 2028 presidential filings.

Quick answers

2028 polls FAQ

Who is leading the 2028 polls?
Across recent national surveys, Kamala Harris has led most 2028 Democratic primary polls, with Gavin Newsom consistently second, while JD Vance leads every recent Republican poll, usually by double digits. The field is unsettled and numbers this early mostly reflect name recognition - the dated table above shows the latest read from each pollster.
Are there reliable 2028 polls yet?
Only early ones. More than two years out, primary polls largely measure familiarity. They are worth watching for trend, not treating as predictions.
What do the 2028 Democratic primary polls show?
Most national 2028 Democratic primary polls since spring 2026 have put Kamala Harris first - usually in the high 20s to mid 40s - with Gavin Newsom consistently second. A few surveys differ: Emerson College's May 2026 poll had Pete Buttigieg first at 17.9%, Newsom at 15.9%, and Harris at 9.9%. The table above shows each pollster's numbers; the field is undecided-heavy this far out.
What do the 2028 Republican primary polls show?
JD Vance leads every recent 2028 Republican primary poll, with support ranging from about 29% to 47%. Marco Rubio is consistently second, though he said in September 2026 he has no plans to run. Emerson College's late-May 2026 survey was the only one to show them within a point (Vance 35.5%, Rubio 34.6%); most polls give Vance a double-digit lead, with Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and others in single digits.
Where can I find the latest 2028 polls?
Pollsters such as Emerson College publish early 2028 surveys, and aggregators track them. We link the source pollster on every row of the table above.

Compare with prediction-market odds | what they said | matchups.