Is Hawaii a swing state?

A swing state (also called a battleground or purple state) is one where the two major parties are competitive enough that either could win its electoral votes in a given election. Hawaii does not fit that description. Since becoming a state in 1959, Hawaii has voted Democratic in every presidential election except 1972 (Richard Nixon) and 1984 (Ronald Reagan), both of which were 49-state national landslides. In normal elections it is solidly blue.

Hawaii carries 4 electoral votes - 2 for its U.S. senators and 2 for its U.S. House seats. Because the outcome there is rarely in doubt, presidential campaigns spend almost no money or time in Hawaii. Its electoral votes are treated as safely Democratic when analysts build a path to 270.

The states that actually decide modern presidential elections are a small set of genuine battlegrounds. In recent cycles these have included Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The exact battleground map can shift from one election to the next as demographics and politics change, but Hawaii has not been part of it in the modern era.

So if you are mapping the 2028 race, Hawaii belongs in the 'safe Democratic' column, not the toss-up column. The competition for the presidency will be fought in the handful of swing states, not in Hawaii.