Will Arizona vote Republican or Democratic in 2028?
Yes - Arizona is a genuine 2028 swing state. It is one of the seven battlegrounds decided by the narrowest margins in 2024, and with 11 electoral votes it is likely to see heavy spending and candidate visits from both parties. No 2028 nominee has been chosen yet, so the eventual matchup is unknown, but Arizona is expected to be close.
Arizona at a glance
- Electoral votes11
- 2028 ratingTossup / Battleground
- RegionWest
- CapitalPhoenix
- 2024 resultTrump (R)
- 2020 resultBiden (D)
- 2016 resultTrump (R)
- 2024 marginTrump +5.5
How Arizona fits the 2028 map
Arizona flipped between 2020 and 2024 (Trump +5.5 in 2024), which is exactly why it sits at the center of the 2028 map.
Because it is so closely divided, Arizona is one of the few states where the national outcome is genuinely decided. Expect both 2028 nominees to compete here hard.
See the full picture on the 2028 electoral map and swing-state guide.
Arizona 2028: frequently asked questions
Is Arizona a swing state in 2028?
How many electoral votes does Arizona have in 2028?
Who won Arizona in 2024?
How has Arizona voted recently?
Get 2028 updates for Arizona
We will email you when the field forms, when polling starts in Arizona, and when the 2028 map shifts. No spam - just the moments that matter.