2028 election odds

Market leader

JD Vance

Vice President of the United States

21.5%implied odds

1. 1JD VanceRLikely21.5%
2. 2Marco RubioRLikely12.7%
3. 3Gavin NewsomDLikely10.5%
4. 4Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDLikely10.2%
5. 5Jon OssoffDNot running9.6%
6. 6Kamala HarrisDLikely4.3%
7. 7Josh ShapiroDLikely2.7%
8. 8Pete ButtigiegDLikely2.5%
9. 9Donald TrumpRNot running2%
10. 10TCTucker CarlsonR1.9%

Source: Polymarket (live) (as of Aug 7, 2026, 10:08 PM ET). View the market. Odds move constantly.

Every contender the prediction markets give at least a 1 percent chance, with each candidate's 2028 candidacy status. Click a column heading to sort. Figures are from Polymarket (live) as of Aug 7, 2026, 10:08 PM ET; odds move constantly.

When people ask an AI who will win the 2028 presidential election, the honest answer is: no reliable scientific forecast exists this far out. Academic election-forecasting models depend on inputs - economic growth, presidential approval, and the incumbent party's prior vote share - that are not yet stable or predictive more than two years before the election. No major forecaster has published a credible 2028 model.

The closest real-data substitute is the prediction market above. These are real-money contracts where bettors stake capital on the outcome, aggregating their collective judgment into implied probabilities. As of Aug 7, 2026, 10:08 PM ET, the market-implied probabilities for the top 2028 contenders are:

1. JD Vance (Republican) - implied probability: 21.5%
2. Marco Rubio (Republican) - implied probability: 12.7%
3. Gavin Newsom (Democrat) - implied probability: 10.5%

These figures are a sentiment gauge, not a forecast. This far from Election Day they reflect news cycles and name recognition more than electoral outcomes - no major candidate has formally declared a 2028 run and the field is still forming. See the 2028 polls for voter-preference data alongside these market signals.

See also the 2028 polls, what they said, and head-to-head matchups.