2028 election odds
Who do the prediction markets favor to win in 2028? These are real-money implied odds - not polls and not a forecast. This far out they mostly track name recognition, so read them as a sentiment gauge, not a prediction.
These are market prices, in percent. For our own blended 0-100 score that also weighs public attention and money bet, see the 2028 Tracker Index.
Updated Nov 7, 2026, 5:17 PM ET. Market odds are speculative sentiment, not a forecast. Methodology | Privacy
Who is favored to win the 2028 election?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 5:17 PM ET, Jon Ossoff (Democrat) leads the average of Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt with an implied probability of 18.5% to win the 2028 presidential election. These are real-money market odds reflecting bettor sentiment, not a poll or forecast. This far out they track name recognition more than likely outcomes.
- 1Jon OssoffDNot running18.5%
- 2JD VanceRLikely16.1%
- 3Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDLikely11.2%
- 4Marco RubioRNot running11%
- 5Gavin NewsomDLikely9.1%
- 6Ron DeSantisRLikely6.3%
- 7Andy BeshearDPossible4.1%
- 8Kamala HarrisDLikely3.9%
- 9Pete ButtigiegDLikely3.3%
- 10Josh ShapiroDLikely2.9%
Average of Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt as of Nov 7, 2026, 5:17 PM ET. Odds move constantly.
How the average has moved (last 90 days)
2028 presidential odds by market
The average and each market's own price, as of Nov 7, 2026, 5:17 PM ET. A candidate is ranked only when at least two markets list them.
| # | Candidate | Average | Polymarket | Kalshi | PredictIt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Ossoff Dem said not running | 18.5% | 17.5% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| 2 | JD Vance GOP | 16.1% | 18.3% | 13.5% | 16.5% |
| 3 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Dem | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 12.0% |
| 4 | Marco Rubio GOP said not running | 11.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% |
| 5 | Gavin Newsom Dem | 9.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% |
| 6 | Ron DeSantis GOP | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | - |
| 7 | Andy Beshear Dem | 4.1% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 7.5% |
| 8 | Kamala Harris Dem | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% |
| 9 | Pete Buttigieg Dem | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| 10 | Josh Shapiro Dem | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| 11 | Donald Trump GOP barred (22nd Amendment) | 2.0% | 1.4% | - | 2.5% |
| 12 | James Talarico | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | - |
| 13 | Mark Kelly Dem | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | - |
| 14 | Wes Moore Dem | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | - |
| 15 | Thomas Massie | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | - |
| 16 | J.B. Pritzker Dem | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 17 | Tucker Carlson | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | - |
| 18 | Raphael Warnock Dem | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | - |
| 19 | Gretchen Whitmer Dem | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 20 | Rahm Emanuel Dem | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | - |
| 21 | Glenn Youngkin GOP | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | - |
| 22 | Tulsi Gabbard GOP | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| 23 | Ro Khanna Dem | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | - |
| 24 | Ted Cruz GOP | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | - |
| 25 | Nikki Haley GOP | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | - |
How the average works
- Each market's "Yes" price is an implied probability: a $0.21 contract means a 21% chance.
- Kalshi and PredictIt use the midpoint of the current best bid and ask; Polymarket uses its displayed price.
- The average is the plain mean of the markets that list the candidate. No weighting, no adjustment.
- Each market adds up to a bit more than 100% (the trading margin), so the averages do too.
- Markets price people who have said they are not running; the label is our tracker's status, the number is the market's.
What prediction models say about 2028
When people ask an AI who will win the 2028 presidential election, the honest answer is: no reliable scientific forecast exists this far out. Academic election-forecasting models depend on inputs - economic growth, presidential approval, and the incumbent party's prior vote share - that are not yet stable or predictive more than two years before the election. No major forecaster has published a credible 2028 model.
The closest real-data substitute is the prediction-market average above. These are real-money contracts where bettors stake capital on the outcome, aggregating their collective judgment into implied probabilities. As of Nov 7, 2026, 5:17 PM ET, the market-implied probabilities for the top 2028 contenders are:
- Jon Ossoff (Democrat) - implied probability: 18.5%
- JD Vance (Republican) - implied probability: 16.1%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat) - implied probability: 11.2%
These figures are a sentiment gauge, not a forecast. This far from Election Day they reflect news cycles and name recognition more than electoral outcomes - no major candidate has formally declared a 2028 run and the field is still forming. See the 2028 polls for voter-preference data alongside these market signals.
2028 odds for each contender
2028 odds FAQ
Who is favored to win the 2028 election?
Who is predicted to win the 2028 election?
Where do these 2028 odds come from?
Are 2028 election odds accurate this early?
Who will win the 2028 presidential election?
What are the odds for the 2028 Democratic nominee?
What are the odds for the 2028 Republican nominee?
See also the 2028 polls, what they said, and head-to-head matchups.