Updated October 26, 2026
2028 Republican (GOP) primary polls
Early national GOP primary polling of the 2028 Republican field, led by the sitting vice president.
2028 Republican (GOP) primary polls: who is ahead?
Across the last 5 polls, JD Vance averages about 40%, Marco Rubio averages about 20%, Donald Trump Jr. averages about 13%. JD Vance leads the most recent survey at 40% (Harvard-Harris, October 24-26, 2026). This early, the numbers mostly reflect name recognition, not the eventual result.
- JD Vance - 40% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Marco Rubio - 20% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Donald Trump Jr. - 13% average (4 of the last 5 polls)
| Poll | Dates | Vance | Rubio | Trump Jr. | DeSantis | Kennedy Jr. | Haley | Cruz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard-Harris2,700 RV | October 24-26, 2026 | 40% | 21% | 21% | - | 8% | 4% | - |
| Clarity Campaign Labs413 LV | October 15-21, 2026 | 40% | 17% | 17% | 9% | 5% | - | 2% |
| Echelon Insights417 LV | October 15-19, 2026 | 38% | 20% | 7% | 12% | 2% | - | 4% |
| Noble Predictive Insights1,137 RV | October 5-7, 2026 | 44% | 18% | - | 8% | - | 3% | 5% |
| Focaldata/Financial Times803 LV | October 2-5, 2026 | 38% | 24% | 7% | 9% | 4% | - | 2% |
| Harvard-Harris2,200 RV | September 26-28, 2026 | 39% | 17% | 24% | - | 9% | 5% | - |
| McLaughlin & Associates430 LV | September 16-22, 2026 | 35% | 15% | 14% | 6% | - | 3% | 3% |
| Echelon Insights424 LV | September 17-21, 2026 | 38% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 3% | - | 3% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs406 LV | September 11-16, 2026 | 35% | 16% | 12% | 12% | 5% | - | 3% |
| Big Data Poll1,110 LV | September 13-15, 2026 | 38% | 16% | - | 8% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| Focaldata662 LV | August 28 - September 2, 2026 | 43% | 21% | 7% | 9% | 4% | - | 4% |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov499 LV | August 25 - September 1, 2026 | 44% | 21% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Quantus Insights473 LV | August 26-28, 2026 | 41% | 29% | 9% | 6% | - | - | - |
| McLaughlin & Associates433 LV | August 18-24, 2026 | 32% | 12% | 19% | 6% | - | 5% | 2% |
| Focaldata874 A | August 7-11, 2026 | 42% | 18% | 10% | 8% | 6% | - | 3% |
| Emerson College | July 19-20, 2026 | 39% | 38% | 5% | 5% | - | - | - |
| Echelon Insights1,004 LV | July 9-13, 2026 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 9% | 3% | - | 2% |
| Harvard-Harris1,776 RV | July 11-12, 2026 | 42% | 22% | 18% | - | 6% | 6% | - |
| YouGov369 A | July 8-10, 2026 | 32% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Quantus Insights480 LV | July 3-7, 2026 | 42% | 26% | - | 9% | - | 3% | 4% |
| Zogby375 LV | July 1-4, 2026 | 51% | 13% | - | 13% | - | - | 5% |
| Focaldata727 LV | June 26-30, 2026 | 40% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 5% | - | 2% |
| Big Data Poll1,166 LV | June 26-28, 2026 | 37% | 18% | - | 8% | 7% | 4% | 5% |
| Daily Mail/JL Partners517 LV | June 24-26, 2026 | 51% | 15% | - | 9% | - | 2% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates440 RV | June 17-23, 2026 | 35% | 15% | 14% | 5% | - | 3% | 3% |
| Echelon Insights418 LV | June 11-14, 2026 | 42% | 15% | 7% | 6% | 3% | - | 2% |
| Echelon Insights1,121 LV | June 5-9, 2026 | 38% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 3% | - | 3% |
| Noble Predictive Insights1,046 RV | June 1-4, 2026 | 36% | 17% | - | 7% | - | 3% | 5% |
| Focaldata667 A | May 29 - June 1, 2026 | 37% | 18% | 10% | 9% | 5% | - | 3% |
| Harvard-Harris1,725 RV | May 29-31, 2026 | 45% | 21% | 21% | - | - | - | - |
| I&I/TIPP561 RV | May 26-28, 2026 | 29% | 12% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Big Data Poll1,148 LV | May 24-27, 2026 | 37.4% | 16.1% | - | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Emerson College432 LV | May 24-25, 2026 | 35.5% | 34.6% | - | 5.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Overton Insights509 | May 16-20, 2026 | 39% | 32% | - | 9% | - | 4% | - |
| Daily Mail/JL Partners496 LV | May 15-19, 2026 | 47% | 18% | - | 9% | - | 3% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates431 LV | May 12-18, 2026 | 32% | 15% | 13% | 6% | - | 5% | - |
| Echelon Insights418 LV | May 14-18, 2026 | 36% | 12% | 6% | 12% | 2% | - | 2% |
The leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster on the listed dates.
Where they stand
The field and its early polling
JD Vance
Vice President of the United States
The clear early Republican frontrunner, at or near the top of every 2028 GOP primary poll in mid-2026.
Ron DeSantis
Governor of Florida
Between 6% and 9% in the six national Republican primary polls from August to mid-September 2026, behind JD Vance and Marco Rubio in all six and behind Donald Trump Jr. in four.
Dan Greaney
Television writer; no political office
Royce White
Former NBA player; 2024 and 2026 Minnesota Senate candidate
Brian Kemp
Governor of Georgia
Byron Donalds
U.S. Representative (Florida); Governor-elect of Florida
Chris Christie
Former Governor of New Jersey (2010-2018)
Donald Trump Jr.
Businessman and Republican fundraiser
Elise Stefanik
U.S. Representative (New York)
Glenn Youngkin
Former Governor of Virginia
Gregory Bovino
Former U.S. Border Patrol commander-at-large
John Kennedy
U.S. Senator (Louisiana)
Kristi Noem
U.S. Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas; former Homeland Security Secretary
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator (Kentucky)
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Governor of Arkansas (re-elected November 2026)
Ted Cruz
U.S. Senator (Texas)
Tim Scott
U.S. Senator (South Carolina)
Tom Cotton
U.S. Senator (Arkansas; re-elected November 2026)
Tulsi Gabbard
Former Director of National Intelligence
Vivek Ramaswamy
Entrepreneur; lost the 2026 Ohio governor race
Sources: Emerson College polling, FEC - 2028 presidential filings. Numbers shown are as reported by the cited pollster on the date noted.
Quick answers
2028 Republican (GOP) primary polls FAQ
Who is leading the republican primary polls?
JD Vance leads, averaging about 40% across the most recent 2028 Republican (GOP) primary polls (and 40% in the latest, Harvard-Harris). The field is unsettled and early numbers mostly track name recognition.
Who will win the 2028 Republican (GOP) primary?
It is far too early to call - no major candidate has formally declared. But JD Vance is the clear early frontrunner, averaging about 40% across recent 2028 Republican (GOP) primary polls, ahead of Marco Rubio (about 20%). These early polls track name recognition, not the eventual result.
How reliable are these polls?
This early, primary polling mostly reflects name recognition. It is useful for spotting trends, not for predicting the result.
All races on the 2028 polls hub.