2028 Democratic primary polls
Early national polling of the 2028 Democratic field. These surveys mostly measure name recognition this far out.
2028 Democratic primary polls: who is ahead?
Across the last 5 polls, Kamala Harris averages about 23%, Gavin Newsom averages about 14%, Pete Buttigieg averages about 10%. Kamala Harris leads the most recent survey at 34% (Harvard-Harris, October 24-26, 2026). This early, the numbers mostly reflect name recognition, not the eventual result.
- Kamala Harris - 23.2% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Gavin Newsom - 13.6% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Pete Buttigieg - 9.6% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
| Poll | Dates | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | Ossoff | Ocasio-Cortez | Shapiro | Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard-Harris2,700 RV | October 24-26, 2026 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 11% | 7% | - |
| Leger375 (A) | October 23-25, 2026 | 22% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | - |
| Echelon Insights522 LV | October 15-19, 2026 | 19% | 14% | 13% | 5% | 13% | 4% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena1,170 RV | October 12-19, 2026 | 12% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 3% |
| Noble Predictive Insights1,171 RV | October 5-7, 2026 | 29% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 6% |
| Focaldata/Financial Times778 LV | October 2-5, 2026 | 30% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 5% |
| Harvard-Harris2,200 RV | September 26-28, 2026 | 38% | 17% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 7% | - |
| McLaughlin & Associates463 LV | September 16-22, 2026 | 29% | 12% | 9% | - | 8% | 5% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights491 LV | September 17-21, 2026 | 24% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 7% |
| Big Data Poll1,329 LV | September 13-15, 2026 | 27% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| Veteran Action/The Honest Poll626 LV | September 7-13, 2026 | 32% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 5% | - |
| Liberal Currents/Center for Strategic Politics683 V | September 3, 8-10, 2026 | 25% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
| Focaldata614 LV | August 28 - September 2, 2026 | 29% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 8% | 6% |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov566 LV | August 25 - September 1, 2026 | 17% | 14% | 16% | 7% | 14% | 3% | 6% |
| Morning Consult | August 28-30, 2026 | 24% | 12% | 9% | 7% | - | - | - |
| Harvard-Harris2,100 RV | August 28-30, 2026 | 42% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 7% | - |
| Quantus Insights551 LV | August 26-28, 2026 | 8.1% | 7.1% | 25.7% | 21.3% | 15.3% | - | - |
| McLaughlin & Associates474 LV | August 18-24, 2026 | 29% | 16% | 10% | - | 9% | 6% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights483 LV | August 13-17, 2026 | 18% | 12% | 13% | 5% | 11% | 6% | 7% |
| Noble Predictive Insights930 RV | August 12-16, 2026 | 28% | 14% | 12% | - | 7% | 5% | 3% |
| Focaldata616 LV | August 7-11, 2026 | 26% | 15% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports1,222 LV | August 2-4, 2026 | 37% | 14% | 10% | - | 9% | 6% | 9% |
| Big Data Poll1,338 LV | July 24-27, 2026 | 29.7% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates472 LV | July 15-21, 2026 | 28% | 18% | 8% | - | 10% | 5% | 3% |
| Emerson College574 LV | July 19-20, 2026 | 8% | 17% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 5% | - |
| JL Partners517 RV | July 20, 2026 | 31% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 4% |
| Echelon Insights496 LV | July 9-13, 2026 | 21% | 14% | 13% | - | 9% | 7% | 4% |
| Harvard-Harris1,776 RV | July 11-12, 2026 | 37% | 24% | 10% | - | 9% | 9% | - |
| YouGov485 A | July 8-10, 2026 | 17% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 10% | 1% | 3% |
| Quantus Insights1,140 LV | July 3-7, 2026 | 35.3% | 17.7% | 12.9% | - | 11.1% | 7.1% | - |
| Manhattan Institute1,121 LV | July 1-6, 2026 | 19% | 15% | 13% | 3% | 12% | 4% | 6% |
| Zogby391 LV | July 1-4, 2026 | 38% | 19% | 9% | - | 12% | 7% | 6% |
| Focaldata755 LV | June 26-30, 2026 | 33% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 7% | 5% |
| Daily Mail/JL Partners1,040 RV | June 24-26, 2026 | 29% | 15% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 5% |
| McLaughlin & Associates464 LV | June 17-23, 2026 | 26% | 16% | 8% | - | 9% | 5% | 3% |
| Echelon Insights515 LV | June 11-14, 2026 | 20% | 14% | 14% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 4% |
| Noble Predictive Insights1,013 RV | June 1-4, 2026 | 27% | 14% | 11% | - | 8% | - | - |
| Focaldata685 RV | May 29 - June 1, 2026 | 37% | 17% | 8% | - | 7% | 3% | 5% |
| Harvard-Harris1,725 RV | May 29-31, 2026 | 44% | 26% | - | - | 8% | 10% | - |
| I&I/TIPP593 RV | May 26-28, 2026 | 31% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% |
| Big Data Poll1,378 LV | May 24-27, 2026 | 28% | 17% | 11% | - | 9% | 6% | 6% |
| Emerson College432 LV | May 24-25, 2026 | 9.9% | 15.9% | 17.9% | - | 11.1% | 10% | - |
| Overton Insights661 LV | May 16-20, 2026 | 9% | 13% | 16% | - | 12% | 8% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports433 LV | May 18-20, 2026 | 34% | 12% | 10% | - | 11% | 9% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights501 LV | May 14-18, 2026 | 23% | 17% | 10% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 6% |
The leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster on the listed dates.
The field and its early polling
Polls in the low double digits and shows a high ceiling among progressives.
Third in the Polymarket 2028 Democratic nomination market (about 13 percent on Sept 23, 2026, behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff) and second to Kamala Harris in most recent national Democratic primary polls.
Polls in high single digits; consistently ranked top-tier by analysts.
Has led most national 2028 Democratic primary polls since spring 2026, though two summer polls (Emerson, July 19-20; Quantus Insights, August 26-28) put Pete Buttigieg first; only mid-single digits in betting markets.
Led a couple of May 2026 national Democratic primary surveys (Emerson, Overton) and two summer polls (Emerson, July 19-20; Quantus Insights, August 26-28), but trails Kamala Harris in most recent polls; low in betting markets.
Barely registers in early 2028 Democratic primary polls (about 1 percent or less) and is not a meaningful factor in prediction markets.
Registers only in the low single digits in early 2028 Democratic primary surveys.
Sources: Emerson College polling, FEC - 2028 presidential filings. Numbers shown are as reported by the cited pollster on the date noted.
2028 Democratic primary polls FAQ
Who is leading the democratic primary polls?
Who will win the 2028 Democratic primary?
How reliable are these polls?
All races on the 2028 polls hub.