2028 Democratic primary polls
Early national polling of the 2028 Democratic field. These surveys mostly measure name recognition this far out.
2028 Democratic primary polls: who is ahead?
Across the last 5 polls, Kamala Harris averages about 31%, Gavin Newsom averages about 17%, Pete Buttigieg averages about 10%. Kamala Harris leads the most recent survey at 26% (McLaughlin & Associates, June 17-23, 2026). This early, the numbers mostly reflect name recognition, not the eventual result.
- Kamala Harris - 30.8% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Gavin Newsom - 17.4% average (5 of the last 5 polls)
- Pete Buttigieg - 10.3% average (4 of the last 5 polls)
| Poll | Dates | Harris | Newsom | Buttigieg | Ocasio-Cortez | Shapiro | Kelly | Beshear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates464 LV | June 17-23, 2026 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 3% | – |
| Echelon Insights515 LV | June 11-14, 2026 | 20% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Noble Predictive Insights1,013 RV | June 1-4, 2026 | 27% | 14% | 11% | 8% | – | – | 2% |
| Focaldata685 RV | May 29 - June 1, 2026 | 37% | 17% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Harvard-Harris1,725 RV | May 29-31, 2026 | 44% | 26% | – | 8% | 10% | – | – |
| I&I/TIPP593 RV | May 26-28, 2026 | 31% | 14% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Big Data Poll1,378 LV | May 24-27, 2026 | 28% | 17% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| Emerson College432 LV | May 24-25, 2026 | 9.9% | 15.9% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 10% | – | 8.5% |
| Overton Insights661 LV | May 16-20, 2026 | 9% | 13% | 16% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports433 LV | May 18-20, 2026 | 34% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 4% |
| Echelon Insights501 LV | May 14-18, 2026 | 23% | 17% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 6% | 2% |
The leading name in each poll is bold. Percentages are as reported by the named pollster on the listed dates.
The field and its early polling
Polls in the low double digits and shows a high ceiling among progressives.
Leads Democratic 2028 prediction markets (around a 30 percent chance of the nomination) and runs at or near the top of recent national Democratic primary polls.
Polls in high single digits; consistently ranked top-tier by analysts.
Has led most recent national 2028 Democratic primary polls (from the high 20s to the mid 40s since spring 2026), though only mid-single digits in betting markets.
Led a couple of May 2026 national Democratic primary surveys (Emerson, Overton) but trails Kamala Harris in most recent polls; low in betting markets.
Barely registers in early 2028 Democratic primary polls (about 1 percent or less) and is not a meaningful factor in prediction markets.
Registers only in the low single digits in early 2028 Democratic primary surveys.
Sources: Emerson College polling, FEC - 2028 presidential filings. Numbers shown are as reported by the cited pollster on the date noted.
2028 Democratic primary polls FAQ
Who is leading the democratic primary polls?
Who will win the 2028 Democratic primary?
How reliable are these polls?
All races on the 2028 polls hub.