Republican primary matchup

Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio: 2028

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are both potential candidates for the Republican nomination in 2028. They would be competing for the same primary voters. No one has formally declared yet, so this is a comparison of where each stands, not a result. Note: Marco Rubio is now listed as not running (Said he has "no plans at this time" to run (Sept 2026); Wikipedia lists him as declined).

Ted Cruz headshotTed Cruz
U.S. Senator (Texas)
RepublicanPossible
Age (2026)
55
Home state
Texas
Age in 2029
58
VS
Marco Rubio headshotMarco Rubio
U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Adviser
RepublicanNot running
9%Win-presidency snapshot
Age (2026)
55
Home state
Florida

Percentages are a snapshot of the Polymarket 2028 presidential winner market (June 2026). They move constantly and mostly track name recognition this far out - they are not forecasts.

Polls and odds

Cruz vs Rubio 2028 polls and odds

Are there Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio polls yet? Not for this exact pairing. Pollsters have begun testing some hypothetical 2028 matchups, but none has published this one. Any single "Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio 2028 poll" you see today is an early, low-signal hypothetical, not a forecast.

The closest real, continuously updated signal is the prediction market. Below is each candidate's current share of the Polymarket 2028 presidential-winner market - a June 2026 snapshot that, this early, tracks name recognition more than the eventual outcome.

n/a
Ted Cruz - chance to win the presidency
9%
Marco Rubio - chance to win the presidency

See the full live board on the 2028 election odds page and aggregated survey averages on the 2028 polls page. These percentages are not forecasts and move constantly.

Ted Cruz: where things stand

The 2016 runner-up and Texas senator has said he expects to seek the presidency again and was reported to be weighing a campaign.

Standing: Says he expects to run again 'at some point'.

Full Ted Cruz 2028 profile

Marco Rubio: where things stand

Former 2016 candidate now serving as Secretary of State, long seen as the main alternative to Vance. On September 9, 2026 he said he has "no plans at this time" to run in 2028 and is focused on his job; Wikipedia now lists him among Republicans who declined to run. He did not rule out a future campaign outright.

Standing: Placed second to JD Vance in most 2028 Republican primary polls through September 2026 (16 percent in Big Data Poll, September 13-15) and is second in the Polymarket Republican nomination market, though he now says he has no plans to run.

Full Marco Rubio 2028 profile

Quick answers

Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio: FAQ

Who would win, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio, in 2028?
It is too early to know. No 2028 nominees have been chosen and no pollster has published a head-to-head for this pairing yet. Ted Cruz is currently rated "Possible" and Marco Rubio "Not running" to run.
Are there Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio 2028 polls?
Not for this exact pairing yet. Pollsters have begun testing some hypothetical 2028 matchups, but none has published a Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio survey so far. We will add head-to-head polling here as soon as a pollster tests this matchup.
Are Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio running for president in 2028?
As of July 2026 neither has formally declared. Ted Cruz: Says he expects to run again 'at some point'. Marco Rubio: Said he has "no plans at this time" to run (Sept 2026); Wikipedia lists him as declined.
Is this a primary matchup?
Yes. Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are Republicans, so they would compete in the same party primary, not against each other in the general election.
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