Gavin Newsom vs Marco Rubio: 2028
Gavin Newsom (Democratic) and Marco Rubio (Republican) are two of the most-discussed names for 2028. No nominee has been chosen, but pollsters have started testing this exact pairing: the most recent published survey (Emerson College, August 16-17, 2026) had Gavin Newsom ahead 48% to 46%. This far out, such numbers track name recognition more than the eventual result - the full polling table and comparison are below. Note: Marco Rubio is now listed as not running (Said he has "no plans at this time" to run (Sept 2026); Wikipedia lists him as declined).
Gavin Newsom- Age (2026)
- 58
- Home state
- California
- Age in 2029
- 61
Marco Rubio- Age (2026)
- 55
- Home state
- Florida
Percentages are a snapshot of the Polymarket 2028 presidential winner market (June 2026). They move constantly and mostly track name recognition this far out - they are not forecasts.
Newsom vs Rubio 2028 polls: every published head-to-head
Yes, Rubio vs Newsom 2028 polls exist - early ones. No party has chosen a nominee, so every survey below is a hypothetical that mostly measures name recognition this far out. It is real, published polling all the same. Newest first, each row verbatim from the pollster's release:
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Newsom | Rubio | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 16-17, 2026 | 1,000 (LV) | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Morning Consult | November 14-16, 2025 | 2,201 (RV) | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Leger360 | August 29-31, 2025 | 849 (A) | 49% | 44% | 7% |
Sources: each pollster's published release, collected via the general-election polling tables of Wikipedia's 2028 United States presidential election article. Verified July 2, 2026.
Alongside the surveys, the continuously updated signal is the prediction market. Below is each candidate's share of the Polymarket 2028 presidential-winner market - a June 2026 snapshot that, this early, also tracks name recognition more than the eventual outcome.
See the full live board on the 2028 election odds page and aggregated survey averages on the 2028 polls page. These percentages are not forecasts and move constantly.
Gavin Newsom: where things stand
Term-limited California governor and front-of-pack Democrat who built a national profile countering the Trump administration. In June 2026 he said he and his wife are under federal investigation, calling it political retaliation for weighing a 2028 bid. In September 2026 he said he would not run if Kamala Harris runs, and says he will decide after the 2026 midterms.
Standing: Third in the Polymarket 2028 Democratic nomination market (about 13 percent on Sept 23, 2026, behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff) and second to Kamala Harris in most recent national Democratic primary polls.
Marco Rubio: where things stand
Former 2016 candidate now serving as Secretary of State, long seen as the main alternative to Vance. On September 9, 2026 he said he has "no plans at this time" to run in 2028 and is focused on his job; Wikipedia now lists him among Republicans who declined to run. He did not rule out a future campaign outright.
Standing: Placed second to JD Vance in most 2028 Republican primary polls through September 2026 (16 percent in Big Data Poll, September 13-15) and is second in the Polymarket Republican nomination market, though he now says he has no plans to run.
Gavin Newsom vs Marco Rubio: FAQ
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