Best deep reads on 2028 polls, odds, and forecasts
What the data actually says this far out - forecasting, prediction markets, and polling, read with appropriate skepticism.
2028 Polls, Odds and Forecasts reads, ranked
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What is Gavin Newsom doing?
Nate Silver argues Newsom's declining poll numbers stem from his choice to embrace the unpopular Biden legacy to court partisan Democrats rather than making a credible electability case for 2028.
Is JD Vance the 2028 Front Runner? Trump Has Questions.
Substantive NYT news piece by Katie Rogers and Tyler Pager (May 30, 2026) reporting on Trump's ambivalence about Vance as the 2028 Republican front-runner, including his informal polling of allies comparing Vance to Rubio.
Way-too-early 2028 Democratic primary draft with Galen Druke
Nate Silver and Galen Druke (April 2025) conduct a way-too-early 2028 Democratic primary candidate draft, directly analyzing the field and electability of potential contenders for the next presidential cycle.
Looking Forward to 2028: Part One
Argues the 2028 Democratic primary will be unusually wide-open with no clear frontrunner, an unsettled primary calendar, unreliable early polling, and unresolved factional tensions between progressives and centrists.
No, Trump can't cancel the 2028 election. But he could still weaken democracy.
ABC News 538 analysis by Nathaniel Rakich concludes Trump cannot legally cancel the 2028 election but could still erode democratic institutions enough to undermine it.
New poll: Democrats' real problem isn't being too liberal - it's being seen as too weak
Using original polling, Morris argues Democrats' core electoral liability is perceived weakness and lack of fighting spirit rather than ideological overreach, with implications for 2026 and 2028 strategy.
Democratic voters want the party to be more moderate - and more socialist?
G. Elliott Morris uses contradictory poll results to show that survey labels like 'moderate' and 'socialist' are unreliable guides to actual Democratic voter preferences ahead of 2026-2028.
Strength In Numbers | Data-driven politics analysis
Independent data-driven analysis of politics, polling, and elections including 2028 forecasts.
What to make of the generic ballot
Matthew Yglesias (April 2026) advises Democrats to trust likely-voter polling showing a midterm generic-ballot advantage and focus on winning both chambers in 2026 as the precondition for any 2028 presidential path.
Why Rubio's Stock Is Rising With MAGA
David M. Drucker examines whether the MAGA-dominated GOP base would rally behind Marco Rubio as the 2028 Republican nominee, with polling suggesting they would.
Prediction Markets as 'Truth Machines'
Academic analysis of prediction market accuracy for elections, comparing Kalshi and Polymarket
Office Hours: Who Should Be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?
A Substack poll/discussion piece inviting readers to vote on a third tier of 2028 Democratic presidential contenders including Ro Khanna, Cory Booker, Gretchen Whitmer, and Rahm Emanuel, with limited original analysis.
Why we trust real polls over prediction markets
G. Elliott Morris and David Nir argue that traditional polling is more reliable than prediction markets or AI-generated synthetic polling for political forecasting, a methodology piece directly relevant to 2028 election forecasting credibility.
Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?
Vanderbilt researchers find that Polymarket betting data predicted the 2024 election more accurately than traditional polls, with methodological implications relevant to forecasting the 2028 race.
Iran war elevates Marco Rubio in Trump's 2028 succession jockeying
Trump has been informally polling his circle of friends and advisers about the 2028 election that could pit some of his top administration...
Poll Suggests a Possible Path Forward for Democrats
The divisions are clear, but there's more common ground than one might expect within the coalition, a Times/Siena poll shows.
Why Is This Race So Damn Close?
Analysis of electoral dynamics and forecasting for 2028 election
Harry Enten: Trump Polling Drop Hurting Vance's 2028 ...
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Tuesday that President Donald Trump's polling collapse "into the abyss" is now destroying Vice...
Democrats Must Listen to Workers
Donald Trump is tanking in the polls. But that public dissatisfaction hasn't translated into working-class people trusting Democrats to have...
G. Elliott Morris on Vibes and the Midterms
Interview and analysis with G. Elliott Morris about polling, vibes, and the midterms with implications for 2028
How Deep Is the Democratic Bench, Really?
Critical assessment of Democratic bench depth amid summer polling challenges
How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets
Analysis of structural factors enabling explosive growth of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
Nate Silver Predicts Who Will Be The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Nate Silver's forecast and prediction for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.
'A clown car': Harry Enten on the 2028 Democratic ...
CNN News Central's John Berman and chief data analyst Harry Enten examine what prediction markets currently show about the Democratic...