Who's Running 2028
General explainer

Is Josh Shapiro running for president in 2028?

Josh Shapiro is tracked as a likely 2028 Democratic candidate. The Pennsylvania governor appears in 10 of the 11 mid-2026 national Democratic primary surveys -- absent only from Noble Predictive Insights (June 1-4) -- with a range of 3 to 10 percent. He places third in one survey (Harvard-Harris, May 29-31, 10%, behind Harris and Newsom) and fourth in three others. He has said he wants to be 'part of that conversation' about the party's future but has not formally declared or filed with the FEC as of mid-2026.

Updated

Shapiro appears in 10 of 11 mid-2026 national Democratic primary surveys tracked here (absent only from Noble Predictive Insights, June 1-4, 2026), with a range of 3 to 10 percent, newest first: McLaughlin & Associates (June 17-23, 2026, 464 LV, 5%); Echelon Insights (June 11-14, 2026, 515 LV, 6%); Focaldata (May 29-June 1, 2026, 685 RV, 3%); Harvard-Harris (May 29-31, 2026, 1,725 RV, 10%); I&I/TIPP (May 26-28, 2026, 593 RV, 6%); Big Data Poll (May 24-27, 2026, 1,378 LV, 6%); Emerson College (May 24-25, 2026, 432 LV, 10%); Rasmussen Reports (May 18-20, 2026, 433 LV, 9%); Overton Insights (May 16-20, 2026, 661 LV, 8%); Echelon Insights (May 14-18, 2026, 501 LV, 5%). He places third in one survey -- Harvard-Harris (10%, behind Harris 44% and Newsom 26%) -- and fourth in three others: I&I/TIPP (6%), Emerson College (10%), and Rasmussen Reports (9%).

Pennsylvania (19 EV, Tossup; voted R 2016, D 2020, R 2024 Trump +1.7 per lib/states.ts) is the largest Electoral College battleground by EV. Shapiro is the only tracked top-tier 2028 Democratic contender from the largest Tossup state. No other major tracked 2028 Democratic contender is a Pennsylvania resident, so no 12th Amendment same-state constraint applies to a Shapiro ticket -- unlike the California (Newsom and Harris both CA residents, 54 EV Safe D at risk), Michigan (Buttigieg, Whitmer, and Slotkin all MI residents, 15 EV Tossup at risk), or New Jersey (Booker and Phil Murphy both NJ residents, 14 EV Safe D at risk) pairings, where co-residents on a ticket risk losing the home state's electors under the established precedent (Dick Cheney changed his voter registration from Texas to Wyoming in 2000 before joining George W. Bush's ticket to avoid forfeiting Texas's electoral votes under the same rule). The VP pick on a Shapiro ticket is free to supply battleground credibility from GA (16 EV Tossup), MI (15 EV Tossup), NC (16 EV Tossup), AZ (11 EV Tossup), or WI (10 EV Tossup) per lib/states.ts.

His most recent signal came in June 2026, when news reports tied a 30-to-40-minute meeting he held with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, on the sidelines of a US-Canada summit in Toronto, to 2028 positioning. Shapiro called it 'a really good in-depth conversation.' He has been appearing alongside other potential 2028 hopefuls on the early circuit since at least early 2026.

Shapiro is constitutionally eligible. He is a natural-born U.S. citizen, is 53 years old as of mid-2026 - well above the constitutional minimum of 35 - and has been a U.S. resident his entire life. No legal bar prevents a candidacy.

Related: Josh Shapiro - full candidate profile | The 2028 Democratic field | 2028 Democratic primary polls | Josh Shapiro VP pick analysis | Josh Shapiro approval rating | Will Josh Shapiro run for president in 2028? | Everything Josh Shapiro has said about 2028

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Related questions

Has Josh Shapiro said he is running for president in 2028?
He has said he wants to be 'part of that conversation' about the party's future and has appeared on the early national circuit, but he has not formally declared or filed with the FEC. He is tracked as a likely candidate, not a declared one.
Is Josh Shapiro eligible to run for president in 2028?
Yes. He is a natural-born U.S. citizen, is 53 years old as of mid-2026, and meets all three constitutional requirements: natural-born citizenship, age 35 or older, and 14 years of U.S. residency.
What do mid-2026 national polls show for Josh Shapiro?
He appears in 10 of 11 mid-2026 national Democratic primary surveys with a range of 3 to 10 percent. He places third in one survey -- Harvard-Harris (May 29-31, 10%, behind Harris and Newsom) -- and fourth in three others: I&I/TIPP (6%), Emerson College (10%), and Rasmussen Reports (9%).
Why is Josh Shapiro seen as a strong 2028 contender?
He is the governor of Pennsylvania (19 EV, Tossup; voted R 2016, D 2020, R 2024 Trump +1.7), the largest Electoral College battleground. He is the only tracked top-tier 2028 Democrat from the largest Tossup battleground, giving him a structural general-election argument that no other top-tier Dem candidate from a Safe D state can match.
Does Pennsylvania create a 12th Amendment same-state constraint for a Shapiro ticket?
No. No other major tracked 2028 Democratic contender is a Pennsylvania resident, so no 12th Amendment same-state constraint applies. Unlike the California (Newsom and Harris), Michigan (Buttigieg, Whitmer, and Slotkin), or New Jersey (Booker and Phil Murphy) pairings -- where co-residents on a ticket risk losing home state electors under the established Dick Cheney 2000 precedent -- a Shapiro ticket faces no such barrier. The VP pick is free to focus on GA, MI, NC, AZ, or WI per lib/states.ts.
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Related explainers

Who can run for president of the United States?

To be eligible, a person must be a natural-born U.S. citizen, at least 35 years old, and have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years.

When do 2028 presidential campaigns start?

The 2028 presidential campaign effectively starts after the November 2026 midterms, with formal announcements expected through 2027 - historically 12 to 18 months before the first primaries in early 2028. There is no legal start date, and as of July 2026 no major candidate has formally declared.

Is Gavin Newsom running for president in 2028?

Gavin Newsom is widely considered a likely 2028 Democratic candidate. He has not formally declared but appears in all eleven mid-2026 national Democratic primary surveys and places second in every one of them, with results ranging from 12 to 26 percent -- the most consistent second-place finish in the Democratic field. He leads 2028 Democratic prediction markets as the most likely Democratic nominee and is constitutionally eligible.

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