Social Security and Medicare in 2028
The future solvency and structure of the two largest federal entitlement programs for older Americans.
Social Security and Medicare together represent the largest single category of federal spending and provide income and health coverage to tens of millions of older and disabled Americans. Both programs face long-term funding shortfalls - Social Security's trust funds were projected to face depletion within the next decade or two absent changes, at which point benefits would be automatically cut under current law.
The core debate involves how to close the funding gap: through some combination of benefit adjustments, eligibility age changes, payroll tax increases, or general revenue transfers. Neither party has found it politically attractive to propose significant cuts, but the math of the shortfall is not in dispute.
Medicare also faces cost-growth pressures as the population ages, with debate over the program's structure, reimbursement rates, and the role of private Medicare Advantage plans.
Why it matters in 2028
With the oldest Baby Boomers in their 80s and the trust-fund depletion date approaching, 2028 candidates may face a genuine near-term deadline to act. Older voters - who participate in elections at very high rates - will be watching closely for any hint of cuts, while younger voters will want reassurance that the programs will exist when they retire.
How each party frames social security and medicare
A neutral summary of each party's general governing approach. Individual 2028 candidates will differ - no nominee has been chosen yet.
Democratic approach
Democrats broadly oppose benefit cuts to Social Security or Medicare and favor addressing funding gaps by raising or eliminating the cap on income subject to the Social Security payroll tax. Many in the party also support expanding Medicare benefits, such as adding dental, vision, and hearing coverage. Democrats frequently frame any proposed changes to benefits as attacks on earned benefits that workers have paid into.
Republican approach
Republicans are divided on this issue. Some support structural changes such as raising the retirement age or introducing means-testing for higher-income beneficiaries. Others, particularly in recent elections, have pledged not to cut benefits. The party broadly supports market-based Medicare Advantage plans as an alternative to traditional Medicare. Fiscal conservatives in the party argue that the programs are a major driver of long-term debt.
Who is in the field on social security and medicare
No party has nominated a 2028 candidate yet. As contenders formally declare and stake out positions on social security and medicare, each candidate profile will be updated. The leading contenders so far:
Democratic contenders
- Gavin NewsomLikely to run
- Kamala HarrisLikely to run
- Pete ButtigiegLikely to run
- Alexandria Ocasio-CortezLikely to run
- Josh ShapiroLikely to run
Republican contenders
- JD VanceLikely to run
- Marco RubioLikely to run
- Ron DeSantisLikely to run
- Ted CruzPossible
- Rand PaulPossible
Tracker updated July 14, 2026. Click any name to see their full profile, background, and current status.
What 2028 will have to answer on social security and medicare
- Will Social Security be there when younger workers retire?
- Would candidates cut or change Social Security or Medicare benefits?
- How would candidates close the Social Security funding gap?
- What is the future of Medicare Advantage versus traditional Medicare?
- Should the retirement age be raised?
Other 2028 issues
How 2028 candidates plan to manage economic growth, consumer prices, and the cost of living.
Border enforcement, legal immigration pathways, and the future of undocumented immigrants already in the U.S.
Federal and state abortion policy after the Supreme Court returned the issue to state legislatures in 2022.
Health insurance coverage, drug prices, and the long-running debate over the structure of the American health system.
Federal tax policy, including the expiring provisions of the 2017 tax law and disputes over who pays what.
Employment levels, minimum wage, union rights, and the future of work in an era of automation and AI.