What is the incumbent advantage in presidential elections?

The 'incumbent advantage' refers to the structural benefits that a sitting president enjoys when running for re-election. Since George Washington, U.S. presidents have run for second terms and won more often than they have lost. In the modern era, only four sitting presidents were defeated for re-election: Herbert Hoover (1932), Jimmy Carter (1980), George H.W. Bush (1992), and Donald Trump (2020).

The advantages of incumbency include near-universal name recognition, the ability to command media attention as the sitting president, access to the machinery of the federal government, a head start on fundraising, and the ability to point to a concrete record of accomplishments.

However, incumbency also brings liabilities. A sitting president owns every bad economic outcome, every foreign policy setback, and every scandal during their term. High inflation, wars, or personal controversies can turn the incumbent advantage into an incumbent disadvantage.

For 2028, no incumbent president is running - the sitting president's second term ends in January 2029 and the 22nd Amendment bars them from a third term. The 2028 race is therefore an 'open seat' election, which historically produces more competitive contests because neither party starts with the automatic advantages of incumbency.