Is Texas a swing state?

Texas is classified as Likely Republican for 2028 and is not on the current battleground list. It carries 40 electoral votes, the second most of any state behind California's 54, making it the largest single pool of electoral votes outside genuine competitive play in recent elections.

Texas has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election for more than four decades. Around 2018 and 2020, Texas attracted significant attention as potentially trending more competitive - fueled by the rapid growth of urban centers including Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio, where Democrats have performed well. National Democratic organizations invested in Texas as a long-term target, and in 2020 some polls showed a closer-than-usual race. The Republican nominee still carried the state, and in 2024 did so again.

The underlying dynamic is that Texas cities have grown substantially and moved toward Democrats, while suburban and rural areas remain strongly Republican. Whether and to what degree those urban gains translate into statewide competitiveness remains a central question in Texas politics. As of 2026, that shift has not moved Texas into the tossup range.

For 2028, Texas is tracked as Likely Republican, a step below the full Safe Republican label - indicating that it is not impossible for the state to become competitive in a wave election - but firmly outside the battleground tier where presidential campaigns concentrate their resources.